Recent events in Crimea have raised many questions about Russia’s involvement in the Ukrainian Civil War. What are the Russians up to? What do they want? Why are they attacking Ukraine? These questions and more have dominated the news cycle over the last few weeks, and it’s high time we try to answer them. In this article, I will present five theories explaining why Russia has decided to attack Ukraine.
Theory #1 – Putin Wants to Rule the World
Many people believe that Putin wants to rule the world and is trying to take over other parts of the world. He may have a lot of enemies in other countries, but he wants them to fear him so they will think twice before going against him. This way, he can be in control. For example, by taking over Crimea, he showed his power by making it seem like no one could stop him from taking over more land. He’s also been fighting against Ukrainian rebels for years now with no sign of stopping, so it’s hard to imagine what else he has planned. Some even say that Putin plans to get all of Ukraine under his control.
Theory #2 – The Arms Race: One theory behind why Putin invaded Crimea was that he wanted to ensure the U.S. couldn’t invade Russia from Ukraine if tensions between these two countries continued. If this happened, Russia would lose their major military advantage because there would be nothing left between its borders and those of America or any other country.
Theory #2 – Putin Wants to Protect Russian Citizens in Eastern Ukraine
Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, wants to protect the Russian citizens in Eastern Ukraine. He’s afraid that the new government will pass laws that will be unfavourable to them and their interests. In response, Putin has enacted military actions on Ukrainian territory, and they’ve taken control of regions with a large population of Russian-speaking people to keep them safe.
This type of action by Putin can be seen as a preventive measure or an act of self-defence because he’s protecting those who might not be able to protect themselves. It could also be seen as a way for him to have more power over European politics by influencing decisions made by the Ukrainian government that was currently being formed after the removal of President Yanukovych from power. He has no interest in harming anyone, but his goal is to get back what he feels belongs to Russia.
Theory #3 – Russia Wants Access to Natural Resources
One must first look at the economic situation to understand why Russia may have interest in getting access to Ukrainian resources. Due to the sanctions imposed by the West, its economic crisis, and low oil prices, the Russian GDP has fallen dramatically. The country’s overall debt has increased substantially due to sanctions and a shrinking economy. In 2015, it was estimatation that as much as half of Russian exports went unpaid because customers could not pay for goods or lacked creditworthiness. This means that if Russia can access Ukrainian natural resources like oil or coal, they will have more wealth to repay their debts and rebuild their economy. They also hope to get into new markets for these products to generate income from other sources.
One theory that is being considered as an explanation of Russia’s behaviour towards Ukraine is that it wants to establish control over Europe’s gas pipeline system, and this could include plans to use the pipelines on its territory to supply Europe with gas directly rather than exporting through transit countries such as Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria or Ukraine. Gazprom (a Russian energy corporation) signs gas deals with Germany, Italy, France, and others.Still, agreements are typically long-term contracts where the price remains fixed until 2030. When Gazprom becomes a monopoly supplier in Western Europe, analysts say they’ll have more gas price discretion.
Theory #4 – Putin Doesn’t Like Europe’s New Foreign Policy Tack toward Ukraine
Europe has a long history of being dominated by other countries, but that has changed in recent years. Germany and France created the euro in the 1990s. They helped Soviet-controlled Eastern Europe join the EU. Putin may not appreciate these changes because he can’t manage his neighbours as much as before.
The EU’s new Ukraine strategy might be another cause for Putin’s hostility; it could threaten Russian interests.
Theory #5 – This Is War Over Gas Pipelines
Russia has long been trying to build a gas pipeline that would allow it to export gas to Europe. In 2009, Russia opened the Nord Stream pipeline, which delivered gas directly from Russia to Germany, bypassing Ukraine. Several years later, Moscow built the South Stream pipeline to deliver Russian gas via Bulgaria and Italy. However, these pipelines did not involve any Ukrainian territory. In 2011, then-Ukrainian President Yanukovych shelved plans for a deal with the EU in favour of tighter connections with Moscow. He agreed to cheaper Russian natural gas supply in exchange for Gazprom ownership over Ukrainian industries with Vladimir Putin.
Why Russia is attacking Ukraine: 5 theories
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